Burlington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS61 KBTV 031436
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
936 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for snowfall continue today and then again late tomorrow and
Thursday. Thursday`s snowfall will be from a clipper system that
moves across the region, dropping several inches of snowfall, then
leaves colder air and gusty northwesterly winds in its wake
Friday. Hazardous travel is possible, particularly for the
Thursday morning and evening commutes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 923 AM EST Tuesday...The current forecast continues to be
in good shape, with just a few minor tweak to temperatures and
cloud cover to reflect the latest observations. Snow showers
continue across the forecast area, especially across the
Adirondacks and portions of the Greens where accumulating snow
continues.

Previous discussion...Today continues to look similar to
yesterday with blocked flow and a shortwave moving through, plus
some additional moisture. Snow shower chances will gradually
decrease throughout the day as we become unblocked, but by then
some areas will have accumulated up to 1-3 inches of additional
snow. Most snow will fall at the higher elevations of the Green
Mountains, but about a trace to an inch of additional snow is
forecast elsewhere, including the Champlain Valley. Highs will
again struggle to reach into the mid 20s to lower 30s today, as
the clouds don`t appear to break up much before sunset. Apparent
temperatures will only reach the teens to mid 20s in
comparison.

Clouds decreasing should, provide a cooler night tonight with
projected lows in the teens and lower 20s and apparent temperatures
as low as the single digits to lower teens. Snow shower chances will
become isolated slight chance in the Greens and Northeast Kingdom,
however, clouds and precipitation chances will begin to resurge
again late tonight into early Wednesday morning from west to east as
our next clipper system approaches. This will result in additional
snowfall of about a trace to an inch in the Green Mountains and
Northeast Kingdom from lingering showers as well as a trace to a
half an inch for St. Lawrence County at the forefront of the
clipper.

Steady snowfall chances and cloud cover continue to increase
throughout the day tomorrow from west to east as a surface low
pressure moves eastward across the Great Lakes. This should spell
another chilly day for the forecast area with highs in the upper 20s
to lower 30s despite an increasing southerly wind with gusts 15-25
knots, and a Lake Wind Advisory may be needed for Lake Champlain.
These gusty winds will allow for apparent temperatures maxing out in
the mid teens to lower 20s. Snowfall during the day should amount to
only about 0.2-2.5 inches of fresh snow, with higher amounts west
and lower amounts east. More details about the clipper system
overall can be found in the short term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...Snow will be ongoing across much of the
region at the onset of this period as a clipper system treks
eastward north of the Great Lakes. The surface low will push to the
east Wednesday night and Thursday, skirting the international border
and eventually toward northern Maine by Thursday evening. While snow
will be widespread, expect some shadowing on the northern side of
the Adirondacks due to strong south flow out ahead of the clipper.
Flow will gradually trend southwestward overnight, shifting the
downsloping region to the east side of the Adirondacks by Thursday
morning. These areas will still see accumulating snow overnight into
Thursday morning, but lesser amounts than elsewhere. The clipper
will move to our east Thursday afternoon/evening, shifting winds to
the west/northwest. Snow will become more focused in the favored
upslope areas of the western Adirondacks and Green Mountains, while
trending more showery in the wider valleys, especially southern
Champlain and lower CT Valleys due to downsloping. Lapse rates will
steepen as cold air moves in behind the departing clipper, leading
to some instability during the afternoon. This combined with some
enhanced moisture from flow off the Great Lakes means convective
showers will be possible, with moderate to perhaps even briefly
heavy snow at times. Through dinner time Thursday , expect snowfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley and lower CT River
Valley, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. Summit levels will receive 5-8
inches. This snow could make for tricky commutes on Thursday,
especially in the afternoon should heavier snow showers develop.

The other concern will be gusty winds, both ahead of the clipper and
after it departs. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely Wednesday night
and Thursday, first out of the south, then switching to the
west/northwest Thursday afternoon. Although temperatures will be
near or even above freezing on Thursday, snow will be relatively
light in nature with SLRs remaining 15:1 or better. Even fairly
light snow accumulations combined with the gusty winds could create
blowing and drifting snow, heightening the potential for hazardous
travel.

The clipper and its associated upper trough will continue to shift
away to our east Thursday night, while ridging starts to build in
from the west. This will place us in west/northwest flow, keeping
the upslope going along the favored western slopes of the
Adirondacks and Greens. Additional light to moderate snowfall
amounts are likely, especially in the higher terrain. Gusty winds
will continue as well, ushering in a colder airmass. Lows are
expected to be 10F to 20F, but the breezy conditions will create
wind chills in the single digits, above and below zero, by early
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 AM EST Tuesday...Ridging will continue to build eastward
into our region through late week. Upslope mountain snow showers
will likely persist at least through Friday morning, and winds will
remain breezy as well. Friday and Friday night will be quite chilly,
with highs only in the teens and 20s and overnight lows 5 to 15
above. Uncertainty increases as we head toward early next week, with
models flattening out the ridge and bringing a shortwave/low
pressure system zipping by in fast W/NW flow aloft.
Timing/placement/strength of this system varies, but expect there
will be some additional snow showers somewhere across the region
during the Sat-Mon timeframe. Have stayed close to the NBM for this
timeframe given inherent uncertainty this far out in the forecast.
We do seem to be in for a warming trend through the end of the
forecast period, with highs potentially in the mid/upper 30s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Conditions are primarily VFR across the
forecast area (with the exception of SLK and EFK) and this will
continue to be the case for much of the next 24 hours outside of
brief snow showers (mostly PROB30) lowering ceilings or vis to
MVFR levels. One exception, SLK, has been MVFR ceilings
1900-2300 feet above ground level for several hours and should
continue in this manner until about 20Z Tuesday - 02Z Wednesday.
The other exception, EFK, has had occasional visibility drops
to 1-2 miles in snow showers and flips between VFR and MVFR for
ceilings, based on sky coverage. We are forecasting EFK to
return to mainly VFR conditions by about 16Z-20Z Tuesday,
depending on how long snow showers linger this afternoon in the
Northeast Kingdom. Winds overall will be out of the
west/northwest over the next 24 hours at 4-8 knots. Around
10Z-12Z Wednesday, a clipper system will approach from the west,
so included winds turning southerly, LLWS, and PROB30 steady
snow in the last couple hours of the MSS TAF as that will be the
first place it arrives early Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm